Multivariate normal tissue complication probability models for rectal and bladder morbidity in prostate cancer patients treated with proton therapy

Background and purpose: Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models applied for model-based patient selection to proton therapy (PT) have usually been derived using dose/volume histogram (DVH) parameters from photon-based radiotherapy. This study aimed to derive PT-specific multivariate NTCP models that also accounted for the spatial dose distribution (rectum only) as well as non-dose/volume related factors.

Materials and methods: The study included rectum and bladder DVHs, 2D rectal dose maps and relevant patient/treatment characteristics from 1151 prostate cancer cases treated with PT. Prospectively scored Grade 2 late rectal bleeding (CTCAE v3.0, also procedural interventions separately) (n = 156 (15%)) and Grade 3+ GU morbidity (n = 51 (4%)) were entered into a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Model evaluation included assessment of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: Anticoagulant use was a dominant predictor, chosen in four of the six rectum models and in the bladder model. Age was a dominant predictor in all procedural only rectum models while prostate volume, bladder D5% and V75Gy were predictors in the bladder model. The selection frequency of the dose/volume predictors varied widely, where the percentage of the anterior rectum surface receiving >=75 Gy was the most robust. AUC values ranged from 0.58 to 0.70 across all models, with no clear difference between the DVH- and spatial-based models for the rectum.

Conclusion: Anticoagulant use and age were the most prominent predictors in the NTCP models. V75Gy of the rectal wall and the bladder was a predictor in the DVH-based models of the rectum and bladder respectively.